United Nations research predicts that by 2100 the world’s population will plateau due to reducing levels of fertility.
#1 The levels of mortality and fertility in many developing countries is now comparable to levels found in developed countries.
This is due to major changes in population demographics over the last few decades . With increasing levels of life expectancy at birth and declining levels of fertility in some developing countries.
#2 In the last 60 years the total fertility rate for the world as a whole fell from around 5 to 2.5 live births per woman.
An increasing proportion of the world’s population now lives in countries where the total fertility has fallen below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 live births per woman. Resulting in zero growth rate. Only a small number of countries have a high fertility rate, i.e. over 5 births per woman, and it is predicted that fertility in these countries will also continue to decline.
#3 Based on current evidence it has been predicted that by 2030, two thirds of the world’s population will live in countries where women will have, on average, fewer than 2.1 births.
#4 It is predicated that by 2100 the world’s population will start to plateau and begin to decline due to levels of fertility that are below the replacement level.
Over the next 100 years the population growth rate for the majority of countries will remain fairly static, apart for Africa. However, by 2100 Africa’s fertility levels will have caught up with other countries.
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- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP/248.
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). The end of high fertility is near. POPFACTS, No. 2017/3. Available at https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/PopFacts_2017-3_The-end-of-high-fertility.pdf